As I
start writing this I am keeping in mind that any and everyone who fills out a
tournament bracket, whether they be a
gym rat like yours truly or a person participating in an office pool because
everyone else is doing it, is engaging in a certain amount of guess work. Even
a guy like me who's more than a little informed about all these teams can't
know for certain how two teams will play against each other. With all that in
mind if you are inclined to read this, I hope you enjoy it. But remember it's
intended to entertain and not to be *ahem* investment advice. Here without
further ado is a brief synopsis of each of the 4 regions with explanations of
some of my choices.
South Region: Like most of the experts I expect
Florida to survive in this region
because of a combination of depth, experience and inside-outside scoring
balance that's unprecedented at a time
when top level players don't stay in school long enough for teams to develop
those winning attributes. I also like New Mexico to get to the regional final
with a win over Syracuse before falling to the Gators because the length and
physicality of forward Cameron Bairstow, Center Alex Kirk and guard Kendall
Williams means that the Lobos will probably be less bothered by the length of
the Kansas and Syracuse than any team those two faced in recent memory. Plus
the fact that the Lobos are still smarting from their early exit to Harvard
last year. Talent plus a chip on their shoulder could prove to be the spark for
a deep tournament run.
Also Worth Noting in the South Region In the 8-9 game
Colorado will miss injured star Spencer Dinwidde to an even greater degree than
they have already against a team that can shrink the court like the Panthers.
UCLA will survive against Tulsa but that game will be much closer than a 4-13
game should be. Last but certainly not least I did pick the 5-12 upset with
Stephen F. Austin beating VCU. In my mind I know that the Rams will miss their
hot shooting sixth man and former Rice H.S. standout Melvin Johnson. Even with
that in mind my heart pulled me in this direction because one of the
Lumberjacks' assistant coaches is none other than former South Carolina and
Bishop Loughlin star Mike Boyton, who's now there after a brief stint coaching
at his college alma mater. Good luck to the 'jeacks and to Mike who was one of the best kids I knew as a
player and is now a great guy.
East Region: I have Villanova surviving until the regional final against my pick
Michigan State for two reasons. First I think the new Big East's decision to
return to a home & home format in conference play will help the teams that
did get into the big dance because they've been forced to use counters and make
adjustments by seeing 9 teams twice.
Second, while teams such as Iowa State, whom the 'cats would see in a regional
semi-final may be stronger at a position or two the difference is not so wide
that Villanova can't take advantage of their ability to spread the floor and
penetrate. Sparty on the other hand has length and toughness inside and super sophomore Gary Harris on the
outside who, to an old-timer like myself, looks more and more like former
Milwaukee Bucks' star Ricky Pierce because of his length, defensive energy and
absolutely pure shooting stroke.
Also Worth Noting in the East Region: For the record
I am probably one of the few people who stayed away from the most chic of 5-12
upset picks and took Cincinnati over Harvard.
And in case you're wondering yes I am completely aware that the Crimson
essentially have an Atlantic 10 level roster while playing in the ivy league.
That said I just can't see Tommy Amaker's team sneaking up on people in back to
back NCAA's. I also think that it helps the Bearcats that they play and have
played a heavy dose of eastern basketball so they know what to expect more so
than last year's upset victims out west. I like 10th seeded St. Joe's over UConn
because I think St. Joe's guards, Chris Jones and Langston Galloway to contain
the penetration of the Huskies' two outstanding
PT boats Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatwright. If that happens and the
game becomes a battle in the paint it's a battle that two local products, Halil
Kanacevic of Curtis High on Staten Island and Ron Roberts of St. Peter's (NJ)
Prep can win against a UConn front line that is talented but still developing.
Last but not least congratulations go out to two local players who took the
junior college route to get there and have helped their teams to the big dance
and are in this region. Rugged forward Dustin Hogue of Yonkers' Lincoln high
has provided a tough inside presence for the Cyclones despite being undersized
at 6'6". And Jordan Aaron, who starred in the PSAL's "A"
division before a terrific senior year for coach Billy Turnage at Wings Academy. Jordan's scoring and play
making ability helped Milwaukee to a surprise win in the Horizon League
tournament. Well done guys and good luck to both of you.
Midwest Bracket: The so-called bracket of death where
the committee in its decidedly finite wisdom has seen fit to make unbeaten Wichita
State a top seed but present the Shockers with a gauntlet of traditional
college powers that includes Duke, Louisville, Kentucky and Michigan. Those of you who've
read my news and notes from early last season know that the Shockers have one
of my favorite local stars in forward Cleanthony Early who attended Pine Bush
High School in Orange County. The versatile 6'8" forward combines with
guards Fred Van Fleet and Ron Baker to give WSU as good a core group as there
is in the tournament. I have the Shockers losing in a regional semi final to my
eventual pick Louisville. Former Molloy star Russ Smith has once again taken
his game to another level for tournament time as he did last year for the
defending national champs. Despite a key y mid season loss in forward Chane
Behanen the Cardinals will get enough of what they need inside to win this
bracket and advance to the final.
Also Worth Noting in the Midwest Regional am not on
board with the notion that Kentucky has experienced some sort of basketball
epiphany following the SEC tournament. And K-State not only has a veteran
roster with former Rice star Shane Southwell and former St. Ray's star Omari
Lawrence as role players but they have a talented freshman of their own in
power guard Marcus Foster who averaged 15.4 points per game as a rookie. I'd
feel better about this pick of old friend and point guard Jevon Thomas were further along in his
development because his defense and speed could give UK fits. That said he hasn't shown the ability to run
a team and make solid decisions at this level and probably needs a full summer
and early practice time next season to be ready to be the kind of player his
talent says he should be. Manhattan, with its roster of local stars and Pitino
pupil Steve Mssiello as head coach will play the Cardinals tough for a while
before losing and Duke, whom I have
losing in a regional final rematch to the Cardinals better be careful of getting
into a track meet with UMass in that region. Former Bishop Ford star Chazz
Williams creates a fast pace as well as anyone and former St. Pat's star
Derrick Gordon is a physical scoring off guard but what makes UMass a potential
threat to Duke is a long experienced group of bigs that will not outplay Jabari
Parker and the rest of Duke's frontline but may do just enough to give those
guards a chance to lead them to an upset win.
West Region: I have top seeded Arizona escaping what
will be a difficult bracket and I do so with only a slight nod to Wildcat
assistant and former St. Ray's player Book Richardson. They get the nod
primarily because they're big and
talented and they found the right fit at point guard when T.J. McConnell
arrived from Duquesne. His ability to run the team has allowed Nick Johnson to
play as a true off guard and score attacking the basket or shooting from deep.
Even though the injury to freshman Brandon Ashley takes away a dynamic and
versatile forward they have a enough up front t to advance from this bracket.
I like North Dakota State to be this season's Cinderella 12
seed and post upsets over Oklahoma n round2 and 4th seeded San Diego State.
They have terrific inside outside balance as 6'7" forward Taylor Braun and
6'8" forward Marshall Bjorklund key an attack that shoots over 50% from
the floor and a shade under 37% from beyond
the arc. I look for Creighton and Doug McDermott to beat Wisconsin in a
regional semi before losing to AZ because the Badgers normally reliable defense
will struggle against a team that can spread them like the Blue Jays can.
Also Worth Noting in the West Region: Iowa, with
former Siena coach Fran McCaffery will play tonight's game with a heavy heart
because the coach's 13 year old son
Patrick will have undergone surgery to remove a thyroid tumor. It is a blessing that,
according to reports the surgery went well. The tumor will be tested to
determine whether or not it is malignant. My thoughts and prayers are with
Patrick and his family.
The game marks Iowa's first NCAA appearance in 8 years and
the Hawkeyes have Glen Cove native Melsahn Basabe, who has become a key role
player as the team has transitioned into the kind that can space the floor and
shoot the way McCaffrey's Siena teams did when they scored tourney upsets. Good
luck also to Oklahoma soph and former Mt. Vernon guard Isaiah Cousins.
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